Effects of the Convention on the Rights of the Child on child mortality and vaccination rates: a synthetic control analysis

Table 7 Instrumental variable regression estimates of relationship between CRC adoption and child mortality and vaccination rates

Variables included in regression in year t (except as specified)	Dependent variable in year t + 5
	Infant mortality rate	Under-5 mortality rate	BCG vaccine rate	DTP1 vaccine rate	DTP3 vaccine rate	MCV1 vaccine rate	Polio3 vaccine rate
CRC adoption	−0.12	1.13	6.05	−1.88	−1.50	1.16	−2.11
Ln (population)	−1.12**	−2.54*	1.71**	1.45**	1.59*	1.84**	1.94**
Ln (GDP per capita)	−0.64	−1.77	3.82**	1.13	1.69	3.57*	2.18
Trade as percent of GDP	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.04	0.01
ODA as percent of GNI	−0.18*	−0.43*	0.15	0.05	0.10	0.08	0.10
Polity IV democracy index	−0.06	−0.36	0.02	0.20	0.32	0.23	0.38
Polity IV durability	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.01	−0.02	−0.01	− 0.01
Civil war	0.72	0.91	−0.51	−2.06	−1.64	−1.27	2.93
International war	−3.07+	−7.07+	−0.86	0.31	1.86	2.72	0.78
Dependent variable	1.50***	1.10***	0.65***	0.60***	0.76***	0.63***	0.69***
Dependent variable in year t-5	−0.54***	−0.18	− 0.07	0.05	0.05	0.04	0.05
Country-years	356	356	288	327	327	327	327
R-squared	.98	.97	.55	.55	.69	.61	.66

Note. All regressions use the following variables as instruments for CRC adoption: Simmons ratification hurdles index, DPI federalism index, prior ICESCR adoption, prior CEDAW adoption, and prior regional CRC adoption percent. All regressions include year fixed effects and cluster-robust standard errors. 1990 ≤ t ≤ 1995
+ p < .10; * p < .05; ** p < .01; *** p < .001

ISSN: 1472-698X